In 2015, Pope Francis released an encyclical which declared climate change action a catholic moral imperative of environmental stewardship, while aligning the disproportionate effects of climate change on poorer communities with catholic beliefs. The question to be asked, then, is did this encyclical affect concerns among American Catholics about anthropogenic climate change? The data from a peer-reviewed study in the Climatic Change journal certainly implies so, although not in the manner that you might think.
Using over-the-phone interviews with a nationally-representative sample, researchers assigned numerical scales to anthropogenic climate change belief, belief in whether or not climate change has disproportionate impacts on the poor, as well the scientific credibility assigned to the papacy, in order to compare beliefs before and after the encyclical’s publication, among both Catholics and non-Catholics alike. The study found that political leaning (i.e. whether people identified as conservative or liberal) had a very large, polarizing effect on the reception of the Pope’s encyclical. In other words, in both Catholic and non-Catholic populations, liberals who were aware of the Pope’s encyclical reported higher rates of climate change concern, perceived climate risks for the poor, and perceived papal credibility than those who were not aware of the encyclical. However, on the other end of the spectrum, conservatives were more likely to report lower climate change concern, climate risks for the poor, and papal credibility than those not aware of the encyclical.
While Catholics and non-Catholics produced highly similar linear correlations between political leaning and both climate change concern and perceived climate risks to the poor, Catholics attributed overall higher credibility to Pope Francis’ scientific credibility than non-Catholics. Yet somehow, despite the implication that Catholics should be more receptive to the Pope’s messages, political leaning remained a dominant factor in beliefs about climate change.
Why was this so? The study cites other research papers to explain possible reasons for such findings. One reason involves confirmation bias, where people accept messages that align with their pre-existing beliefs and reject those which threaten them. Another reason was that for some Christians (and in fact, the majority of evangelicals), climate change has been attributed to an apocalyptic worldview in which God’s power and wrath, rather than human consumption patterns, is responsible for climate change.
The paper knowledges that while the observed effects are statistically significant, they are usually very small, and that the results are centered around the United States and should not be extrapolated to other countries. However, the researches still stress the need to take their findings into account and become aware of our possible biases, to come to more accurate conclusions regarding climate change, as well as for large-scale organizations to think carefully about their methods of communication.
SOURCE STUDY: Li, N., Hilgard, J., Scheufele, D.A., Winneg, K.M., Jamieson, K.H. 2016. Cross-pressuring conservative Catholics? Effects of Pope Francis’ encyclical on the U.S public opinion on climate change. Climatic Change, 3, pp 327-380.